Are Mozambique's insurgents really part of "ISIS"?

This is one of two newly-published supplements to PolGeoNow's Mozambique insurgency control map report series. The other revisits the question of the what the insurgents are actually called, still relevant one year after we first reported on their history and emergence onto the world stage.

Mozambique's insurgents have been pushed out of their most prized territories, but are still fighting on in other areas.

PolGeoNow's coverage of the insurgency in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province has, as usual, been largely focused on who controls what territory in the conflict - and though insurgents have recently lost their most prominent territorial holdings, they're still a force to be reckoned with. 

But there's one big question that still hangs over the story, relevant both to how the outside world should view the insurgency and to what the rebels are even called:

Are Mozambique's insurgents part of "ISIS"?

A year after they made international headlines by capturing and holding onto the major town of Mocímboa da Praia, the short answer is still "probably sort of".

The so-called "Islamic State" (IS; formerly ISIS or ISIL), though it started in Iraq and Syria and still is based there, has also established branches and franchises - with varying degrees of connection to IS headquarters - in far-flung countries around Africa and Asia. So the more specific question is: Are the Cabo Delgado insurgents genuinely connected to IS, and if so, how connected?

What are Mozambique's insurgents called?

This is one of two newly-published supplements to PolGeoNow's Mozambique insurgency control map series. The other provides an update on the question of what links really exist between the insurgents and the so-called "Islamic State" organization (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL).

At the height of their control earlier this year, secretive insurgents dominated a small but important corner of Mozambique. (Map from our July 2021 Cabo Delgado update.)

A Nearly-Nameless Insurgency

In our August 2020 Mozambique conflict map article, we discussed confusion over the name of the insurgent group operating in Cabo Delgado province. Now, a year later, we've decided it's time to briefly revisit that question. 

Though the fighters have now been pushed out of their most prized territories, they're still present in the region in large numbers, so questions about their identity remain highly relevant.

Al Shabaab in Mozambique?

At this point there's no longer much question that the group's most commonly-used name in Cabo Delgado - by both its opponents and the insurgents themselves - is "Al-Shabab". This unofficial name, which means "the youth" in Arabic (the international language of the Islamic religion, but not of everyday communication in Mozambique), appears to be a reference to the Al Shabaab insurgent group in Somalia. Though the word is usually spelled "Shabaab" in the Somali context, and international commentary often uses this spelling for the Cabo Delgado insurgents too, local spelling conventions in Mozambique tend to prefer "Shabab" without the double A.

Mozambique Control Map: Rebels Lose Mocímboa da Praia - August 2021 (Subscription)

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Map by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic. Timeline by Djordje Djukic.

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After the intervention of Rwandan forces, Insurgents aligned with the so-called "Islamic State" (ISIS/ISIL) have been pushed out of their most notable territories in Mozambique's far northern province of Cabo Delgado. However, they're believed to still be active in large numbers in more remote areas.

 

See all this and more on the newest update to PolGeoNow's Mozambique territorial control map, which includes a timeline of changes and important events since our previous Cabo Delgado map report in July.

This map and report are premium content, available to paid subscribers of the PolGeoNow Conflict Mapping Service.

(Note: Though Rwanda's defense department has been seen using our Cabo Delgado map in a press briefing, PolGeoNow has no known contact or business relationship with the Rwandan government or military, and the map was used without our prior knowledge. As always, PolGeoNow does not endorse any actor, organization, or policy in any armed conflict or political dispute.)

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Exclusive map report includes:

• Detailed illustration of approximate current territorial control in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, color-coded for insurgents affiliated with the so-called "Islamic State" (ISIS/ISIL) vs. the Mozambican government and allies (including Rwandan and SADC troops). Areas of contested or unclear control indicated separately. Colorblind accessible. 
• Detailed indication of city-by-city control status, including for many relevant smaller towns and villages.
• Detailed indication of which towns and villages have subject to insurgent raids or pro-government military operations since late July 2021.
  
• Contextual details including district boundaries, rivers, major roads, and terrain.
  
• Sites of international economic interest: Total's suspended LNG site, offshore natural gas fields, and Montepuez ruby mine.
  
• Key locations from the news, including Palma, Mocímboa da Praia, Awasse, Ntotwe, Nchinga, and many more.
• Accompanying article with detailed timeline of territorial control changes and key political and military developments since late July, with sources cited. 

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Guest Feature: Map of Control in Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict (August 2021)

In a dramatic reversal, Tigray rebels are now on the offensive after recapturing their state's capital in northern Ethiopia. To illustrate the current situation, PolGeoNow is again honored to feature a territorial control map created by our colleague Daniel from Passport Party. Also included is a timeline of events since the previous update in February.

Map of control in Tigray and surrounding areas in early August 2021, by Daniel of Passport Party (used with permission).

Ethiopia Conflict: Updated Control Map 

Since our previous Tigray conflict article in February, the war in Ethiopia's Tigray state has undergone a major shift. Where just months ago the Tigrayan rebels fighting in the name of the former TPLF state government had been reduced to a guerilla forces striking from the hills, they've now recaptured the state capital and continue to advance even beyond the state's borders in a show of strength against the Ethiopian federal government. Though many details of the situation on the ground are still fuzzy, Daniel's latest map - a specially-made update to one published on his Passport Party Twitter account last month - approximates the current lines of control in early August.

Mozambique Insurgency: Map of Control in Cabo Delgado - July 2021 (Subscription)

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Map by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic. Timeline by Djordje Djukic.

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Insurgents with claimed ties to the so-called "Islamic State" (ISIS/ISIL) have mostly held onto their limited areas of control in Mozambique's far northern province of Cabo Delgado. But that could start changing fast, with newly-arrived Rwandan troops already on the offensive.

 

See all this and more on the newest update to PolGeoNow's Mozambique territorial control map, which includes a timeline of changes and important events since our previous Cabo Delgado map report in April.

This map and report are premium content, available to paid subscribers of the PolGeoNow Conflict Mapping Service.

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Exclusive map report includes:

• Detailed illustration of approximate current territorial control in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, color-coded for insurgents affiliated with the so-called "Islamic State" (ISIS/ISIL) vs. the Mozambican government and allies (including Rwandan troops). Areas of contested or unclear control indicated separately. Colorblind accessible. 
• Detailed indication of city-by-city control status, including for many relevant smaller towns and villages.
• Detailed indication of which towns and villages have subject to insurgent raids or government attacks since April 2021.
  
• Contextual details including district boundaries, rivers, major roads, and terrain shading.
  
• Sites of international economic interest: Total's under-construction LNG plant, offshore natural gas fields, and Montepuez ruby mine.
  
• Key locations from the news, including Palma, Mocímboa da Praia, Awasse, Diaca, Ntchinga, Panjele, Quiwiya, and many more.
• Accompanying article with detailed timeline of territorial control changes and key political and military developments since April, with sources cited. 

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Central African Republic Control Map & Timeline - July 2021

We've revived and relaunched our coverage of territorial control in the Central African Republic, one of PolGeoNow's original areas of reporting from back in 2013. The timeline in this article covers the entire period from then up to now, and going forward, our newly-redesigned map will be updated as needed. To ensure your access to future updates, sign up for our conflict mapping service.

Map by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic. Terrain data sourced from ViewFinderPanoramas.
Contact us for permission to use this map.

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Timeline by Djordje Djukic and Evan Centanni

Who controls the Central African Republic in 2021?

Since PolGeoNow's last coverage of rebel control in the Central African Republic back in 2013, the country's civil war has continued all the way until today, but with some major reconfigurations. The Séléka rebel coalition, officially disbanded after it took over the country's government in 2013, has undergone a long series of fragmentations and reconstitutions since stepping down from full control of the country in 2014. Perhaps more surprisingly, many of the ex-Séléka groups have teamed up with their once-bitter enemies - militias of the Anti-balaka movement - to form a unified front against the country's internationally-backed government, which sees both of them as unwelcome rogue elements.

African Union Suspends Mali Again (Map)

Map by Evan Centanni, from blank map by Eric Gaba. License: CC BY-SA

Mali Suspended from AU for Second Time in Less Than a Year

PolGeoNow readers may remember that Mali was suspended from membership in the African Union (AU) last August, after a military faction overthrew the country's government. That suspension was reversed in October, when a civilian transitional government came to power. But with military figures once again taking over the country late last month, the AU has once again suspended Mali's membership. The new suspension was imposed on June 6.

Map: Which Countries are in the African Union?

This map and explainer will be updated whenever there's a change in AU membership, including suspensions and reinstatements. News about each change will be published in separate articles, which you can find listed below, or by viewing all African Union content on PolGeoNow.

Map by Evan Centanni, from this blank map by Eric Gaba. License: CC BY-SA

What is the African Union?

Launched in 2002 as a replacement for the earlier Organization of African Unity (OAU), the African Union (AU) is an intergovernmental organization that works on increasing cooperation, stability, and development within the continent of Africa. The organization is headquartered in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. (Ethiopia is the only African country that the European empires never colonized, and is also the second most populous country on the continent.)

Libya Control Map & Timeline: Lines Frozen by Unity Deal - April 2021 (Subscription)

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Research by Djordje Djukic. Map by onestopmap.com, Evan Centanni, and Djordje Djukic.

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Libya's civil war entered a stalemate after the eastern government's failure to capture Tripoli from the western government last year - and now it's been tentatively declared over after a peace deal and formation of a unity government. 

But for the time being, the lines of control between former opposing military forces remain in place, and we've made some adjustments to the map based on newly-available information.

See all this and more on the latest update to PolGeoNow's concise, professional Libya control map, which comes with a timeline of changes since our previous Libya control map report of June 21, 2020.

This map and report are premium content available to paid subscribers of the PolGeoNow Conflict Mapping Service.

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Exclusive report includes:

• Up-to-date map of current territorial control in Libya, color-coded for forces aligned with the former Government of National Accord (GNA), Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), the so-called "Islamic State" (ISIS/ISIL), and Toubou and Tuareg militias in the south. Colorblind accessible.
• Detailed indication of city-by-city control, including key towns and other locations important to current events.
• Detailed timeline of important events and changes to territorial control since June 21, 2020, with links to sources.

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Mozambique Insurgency: Close-up Map of Control in April 2021

There are newer editions of this map available. To see them, view all Mozambique articles on PolGeoNow.

It's finally here: the close-up, super-detailed version of our Mozambique insurgency control map! This edition depicts the situation near the beginning of this month, when the government was fighting for control of Palma. A new close-up version of our August 2020 map is also now available, and future updates are expected more frequently from now on. To see the full list of reports, you can always view all Mozambique articles on PolGeoNow.

Map by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic. Some elements © OpenStreetMap contributors. Terrain data sourced from ViewFinderPanoramas. Contact us for permission to use this map.

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Timeline by Djordje Djukic and Evan Centanni

New: Close-up Cabo Delgado Insurgency Map

In the eight months since our first Mozambique conflict timeline was published, insurgents in Cabo Delgado province have gradually increased their control, continuing to raid villages and towns in multiple districts, culminating most recently in their temporary takeover of most of Palma, a major town close to under-construction natural gas facilities operated by French company Total. The rebel group - locally known as "Al Shabaab" but thought to formally label itself Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamâ (ASWJ) - is increasingly believed to be cooperating, if only loosely, with the so-called "Islamic State" (IS; ISIS/ISIL).

Now, for the first time, PolGeoNow presents our close-up map of the Cabo Delgado conflict, rigorously researched and edited to provide the most detailed, informative, and reliable map of insurgent control and attacks available anywhere.

Mozambique Insurgency: 2017-2020 Close-up Map & Expanded Timeline (Subscription)

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There are newer editions of this map available. To see them, view all Mozambique articles on PolGeoNow.

Map and report by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic

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This is an alternate version of our free August 2020 Mozambique control map and report, now featuring a close-up map with much more detail. In addition to territorial control, the map also indicates the locations of other 2017-2020 insurgent attacks and government raids.

 

Included in the accompanying report is a revised and expanded timeline of events since 2017, focusing in on the details of where and when attacks and fighting have happened.

This map and report are premium content, available to paid subscribers of the PolGeoNow Conflict Mapping Service.

Want to see before you subscribe? Check out our most recent FREE SAMPLE Mozambique map!

Exclusive map report includes:

• Detailed illustration of territorial control in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province in August 2020, color-coded for insurgents affiliated with the so-called "Islamic State" (ISIS/ISIL) vs. the Mozambican government and allies (including Dyck private military contractors). Areas of contested or unclear control indicated separately. Colorblind accessible. 
• Detailed indication of city-by-city control status, including for many relevant smaller towns and villages.
• Detailed indication of which towns and villages were subject to insurgent raids or government attacks from the beginning of armed conflict in October 2017 up to the capture of Mocímboa da Praia town in August 2020.
  
• Contextual details like district boundaries, rivers, major roads, and terrain shading.
  
• Sites of international economic interest: Total's under-construction LNG plant, offshore natural gas fields, and Montepuez ruby mine.
  
• Key locations from the news, including Mocímboa da Praia, Awasse, Macomia, Miangalewa, Litingina, Ntessa, Cagembe, Marere, Makulo, and many, many more.
• Accompanying article with detailed timeline of territorial control changes and key political and military developments since the outbreak of armed conflict in October 2017, with sources cited. 

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Somalia Control Map & Timeline - February 2021 (Subscription)

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(To see other maps in this series, view all Somalia updates.)

Map by onestopmap.com, Evan Centanni, and Djordje Djukic

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In the past four months, control lines have changed little in Somalia's south, but Al Shabaab has increasingly seized villages near the northern coast, in the area disputed between Puntland and Somaliland. Meanwhile, the map has undergone a subtle overhaul, with various small adjustments made after a thorough review of available research.

See all this and more on the latest update to PolGeoNow's concise, professional Somalia control map, which includes a timeline of territorial changes and key events since our previous Somalia map report of October 2020, with sources cited.

This map and report are premium content, available to paid subscribers of the PolGeoNow Conflict Mapping Service.

Want to see before you subscribe? Check out our most recent FREE SAMPLE Somalia map!

Exclusive map report includes:

• Up-to-date illustration of current territorial control in Somalia, color-coded for the federal government coalition (including AMISOM peacekeepers), autonomous unionist forces, separatist Somaliland, Al Qaeda affiliate Al Shabaab, and fighters aligned with the so-called "Islamic State" (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL). Areas of mixed or unclear control indicated separately. Colorblind accessible.
• Boundaries and labels for Somalia's official regions and states, including the self-proclaimed independent Republic of Somaliland and federal states Puntland, Galmudug, Jubaland, South West, and Hirshabelle. Illustrates the claims of both sides in the Somaliland-Puntland border dispute, as well as actual control.
  
• Detailed indication of city-by-city control, including many relevant smaller towns and villages.
• Locations of recent fighting and other important events, including Milho (Milxo), Ba'adweyne, Bur Heybe, Gobo Kibir, and more.
• Detailed timeline of territorial control changes and key political developments since October 20, 2020, with sources cited. 
• Summary of the conflict situation and changes to the map over the past four months.

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Guest Map: Border Changes in Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict (February 2021)

For the second time, we're honored to feature a map of the Tigray conflict created by our colleague Daniel from Passport Party. Though detailed territorial control is difficult to map right now, Daniel illustrates how the shakeup has resulted in new de facto courses for both state and national borders in the area.

Map of de facto border changes amid the 2020-2021 Tigray conflict, by Daniel of Passport Party (used with permission).

Ethiopia Conflict: Passport Party's Map of Tigray Border Changes 

Since our previous Tigray conflict article in November, featuring our colleague Daniel's map of territorial control at that time, the war in Ethiopia's Tigray state has cooled down somewhat. Because of the situation on the ground, it's probably not possible to reliably map out the details of territorial control in Tigray right now. So instead, Daniel's new map - originally published on his Passport Party blog and Twitter account - focuses on another interesting aspect of the political geography: the way that overall administrative boundaries have changed during the war, even if not officially.

 

Guest Feature: Map of Control in Ethiopia's Tigray Conflict (November 18, 2020)

PolGeoNow has newer coverage of this conflict since this map was published. To see it, view all Ethiopia articles.

Today we're featuring a map created by a friend of PolGeoNow, Daniel from Passport Party, roughly illustrating territorial control in the new conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray state. For further updates to this map, follow Passport Party on Twitter.

Rough map of territorial control in Ethiopia's 2020 Tigray conflict, by Daniel of Passport Party (used with permission).

 

Ethiopia Conflict: Tigray Control Map by Passport Party

On November 4, 2020, a new armed conflict broke out between Ethiopia's central government and the government of Tigray, a regional state within Ethiopia. Details since then have been difficult to track down because of a government-imposed communications blackout in the region, and at PolGeoNow we've been too busy so far to create our own control map. 

Fortunately, our friend Daniel from Passport Party has managed to create a rough map his own, drawing from a carefully-curated network of sources with local ties, along with what scant media reports are available. Though Daniel warns that a map like this can't be completely reliable under the circumstances, this is our pick for best of the maps that we've seen.

Daniel has graciously offered us permission to feature the latest version of his map here, and for further map updates on the rapidly-changing situation, you can check the Passport Party Twitter feed. Keep reading for a brief outline of the situation, and for more details on the sources used in creating this map.

African Union Un-Suspends Mali (Map)

Map by Evan Centanni, from blank map by Eric Gaba. License: CC BY-SA

African Union Lifts Suspension of Mali

Less than two months after the African Union (AU) suspended Mali from membership in the continental organization, it ended the suspension earlier this month. It had been suspended after a military faction overthrew the government, but the recent appointment of a civilian-led transitional government have led the AU to lift its suspension. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), from which Mali was also suspended in August, has lifted the economic sanctions that it posed on the member country. However, the suspension of Mali's voting rights in ECOWAS bodies, which was imposed at the same time, seems to still be in place.

Somalia Control Map & Timeline - October 2020 (Subscription)

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Map by onestopmap.com, Evan Centanni, and Djordje Djukic

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In the last five months, Somalia's federal government and its allies have made modest gains against Al Shabaab, capturing the first district capital in two years. Meanwhile Galmudug state, under new leadership, has become increasingly integrated with the federal-aligned military coalition.

See all this and more on the latest update to PolGeoNow's concise, professional Somalia control map, which includes a timeline of territorial changes and key events since our previous Somalia map report of May 2020, with sources cited.

This map and report are premium content, available to paid subscribers of the PolGeoNow Conflict Mapping Service.

Want to see before you subscribe? Check out our most recent FREE SAMPLE Somalia map!

Exclusive map report includes:

• Up-to-date illustration of current territorial control in Somalia, color-coded for the federal government coalition (including AMISOM peacekeepers), autonomous unionist forces, separatist Somaliland, Al Qaeda affiliate Al Shabaab, and fighters aligned with the so-called "Islamic State" (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL). Areas of mixed or unclear control indicated separately. Colorblind accessible.
• Boundaries and labels for Somalia's official regions and states, including the self-proclaimed independent Republic of Somaliland and federal states Puntland, Galmudug, Jubaland, South West, and Hirshabelle. Illustrates the claims of both sides in the Somaliland-Puntland border dispute, as well as actual control.
  
• Detailed indication of city-by-city control, including many relevant smaller towns and villages.
• Locations of recent fighting and other important events, including Kurtunwarey, Gendershe, Daynunay, Mubarak, Bulacle, and more.
• Detailed timeline of territorial control changes and key political developments since May 20, 2020, with sources cited. 
• Summary of the conflict situation and changes to the map over the past five months.

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African Union Map Update: Mali & South Sudan Suspended, Sudan Reinstated

Map by Evan Centanni, from blank map by Eric Gaba. License: CC BY-SA

Mali Suspended from African Union

The African Union (AU) suspended Mali from membership in the continental organization yesterday, after army mutineers marched to country's capital and overthrew the president. Major protests had been calling for the president's resignation for months, but his removal by force has not gone over well with the international community. In addition to the AU, Mali has also been suspended from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), an important group including most of Mali's neighboring countries.

"Islamic State" in Mozambique? Control Map & Timeline of the Insurgency

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This is the first edition of our new Mozambique control map series. To guarantee your access to future updates, sign up our conflict map subscription service (updates may be released for free if changes end up being very few or far between).

Map by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic. Contact us for permission to use this map. Terrain data sourced from ViewFinderPanoramas.

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Article by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic

Northern Mozambique's Insurgency: What We Do and Don't Know

Close-up version of the above map, with expanded timeline (subscriber exclusive; click for more info).

International headlines broke last week describing a takeover of a northern Mozambique "city" by what many of them called the "Islamic State" (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL). If this came as a complete surprise to you, you're not alone - even international analysts were startled when the insurgency began in 2017, and though the insurgents have actually overrun Mocímboa da Praia more than once since then, news coverage has been pretty limited.

At PolGeoNow, researcher Djordje Djukic has been keeping an eye on this conflict for some time, and we're now pleased to present what we believe to be the world's first map series documenting territorial control in the northern Mozambique insurgency. 

Update: A much more detailed close-up version of the above map, adding insurgent raids and accompanied by an expanded timeline, is now available to our paid subscribers.

Libyan Civil War Map & Timeline: Tables Turned in Tripoli - June 2020 (Subscription)

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Research by Djordje Djukic. Map by onestopmap.com, Evan Centanni, and Djordje Djukic.

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Over the past few weeks, the tables have turned dramatically in western Libya, with the LNA driven completely out of its footholds within the city of Tripoli, and expelled from almost the whole northwest. 

See all this and more on the latest update to PolGeoNow's concise, professional Libyan Civil War control map, which comes with a timeline of changes since our previous Libya control map report of May 29, 2020.

This map and report are premium content available to paid subscribers of the PolGeoNow Conflict Mapping Service.

Want to see before you subscribe? Check out our most recent FREE SAMPLE Libya map!

Exclusive report includes:

• Up-to-date map of current territorial control in Libya, color-coded for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), the rival Tobruk parliament and Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), the so-called "Islamic State" (ISIS/ISIL), and Toubou and Tuareg militias in the south. Colorblind accessible.
• Detailed indication of city-by-city control, including key towns and other locations important to current events.
• Locations of recent fighting and changes of control, including the Tripoli International Airport, Tarhuna, Bani Walid, Qurayyat, and more.
• Detailed timeline of important events and changes to territorial control since May 29, 2020, with links to sources.

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Can I purchase just this map?
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Libyan Civil War Map & Timeline - May 2020

There are newer versions of this map available. To see them, view all Libya updates.

This is a free edition of our Libya control map series. If you want access to our full collection of Libya maps, you can sign up for our conflict map subscription service.

Base map by Koen Adams of onestopmap.com, with territorial control by Evan Centanni and Djordje Djukic.
Contact us for permission to use this map.

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Timeline by Djordje Djukic, with additional reporting by Evan Centanni

Mapping Control in Libya as Proxy War Escalates

Since the time of our previous Libya control map report last month, the country's UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) has continued to gain ground in the west amid a major withdrawal of the rival Libyan National Army (LNA). The GNA's gains have been achieved with extensive support from Turkey, in the form of thousands of Turkish-allied Syrian rebel fighters as well as many Turkish-provided drones, in what the UN has called "the largest drone war in the world". Meanwhile, the LNA now has its own allied Syrian fighting force, brought in to support Russian private military contractors (PMCs), who are widely claimed to have the full support of Russia's government.