Saturday, March 31, 2012

Mali Conflict Map: Separatists Capture Kidal (March 2012)

Country Name: Mali (English, French, Bambara)
Official Name: Republic of Mali (English), République du Mali (French)
News Category: Divided Countries
Summary: Tuareg-led rebels in northern Mali have taken the important city of Kidal, as well as two other towns, and are now advancing on Gao, the northern headquarters of the Malian military.

Map of Tuareg rebellion in Northern Mali, showing towns controlled by the MNLA rebel group as of March 31, 2012
Towns captured by the Tuareg-majority MNLA rebel group in Mali. Modified from Wikimedia map by Orionist, incorporating images by Carport and NordNordWest (source). License: CC BY-SA.
Full Story: Mali Divided by Separatist Fighting

Conflict Update
Right on the heels of our last Mali map update, the Tuareg-led rebels of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) have made a great deal of further progress, including their biggest victory yet. Yesterday the rebel group captured Kidal, one of the three main cities in northern Mali (the region in which they hope to establish an independent country called Azawad). This time, it was widely reported that the MNLA was working together with Ansar Edine (or "Ansar Dine"), an Islamist group also led by a veteran Tuareg fighter, but which the other rebels had formerly shunned.

Just after overrunning Kidal, the MNLA was reported to have taken the towns of Bourem and Ansongo on either side of Gao, a key city containing the northern headquarters of the Malian military. Malian troops had previously announced their withdrawal from those two towns in order to focus their defense on the city. Now, the Tuareg fighters have entered the city of Gao, and are currently fighting to take the two military bases there. Follow events as they develop on Political Geography Now! To see only stories about this ongoing conflict, use the Mali filter.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Mali Conflict Map: Separatists Gain Ground in North (March 2012)

Country Name: Mali (English, French, Bambara)
Official Name: Republic of Mali (English), République du Mali (French)
News Category: Divided Countries
Summary: The rebellion of Tuaregs and other ethnic groups in northern Mali has continued gaining territory, and now threatens major cities in the north, where the rebels seek to establish an independent country called Azawad. Meanwhile, Malian military leaders upset with their government's handling of the rebellion have taken over the country in a coup, leading to increased chaos on the country's suspension from the African Union.

Map of Tuareg rebellion in Northern Mali, showing towns controlled by the MNLA rebel group
Towns captured by the Tuareg-majority MNLA rebel group in Mali. Modified from Wikimedia map by Orionist, incorporating images by Carport and NordNordWest (source). License: CC BY-SA.
Full Story: Mali Divided by Separatist Fighting

Conflict Update
After a month with no territorial gains or losses reported, on March 11 the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) captured of the town of Tessalit in Mali's far north. Home to a major military base and an airport, Tessalit was a major prize for the rebels, most of whom come from the traditionally nomadic Tuareg ethnic group. Their push for independence continued two days later with the storming of Diré and Goundam, two towns near the major northern city of Timbuktu, though it is unclear whether those two towns are still occupied by the MNLA.

Map of the African Union, marking suspended members Mali and Madagascar
The African Union (green) with suspended members
Mali and Madagascar in lighter green. Modified from
this Wikimedia map (public domain).
An unexpected turn of events came on March 21, when the Malian government fell in a military coup. The leaders of the takeover cited President Amadou Toumani Toure's ineffectiveness at combating the Tuareg revolt in the north as their reason; ironically however, the chaos caused by the coup has proved beneficial to the rebels, who on March 23 captured the town of Anefis on the road between Gao and Kidal, two of the north's major cities. The MNLA has boasted that it will soon take those two cities, as well as Timbuktu, and recently it has indeed been reported that Malian troops in Kidal are negotiating a surrender after the city was surrounded by Tuareg militias.

In the confusion, another Tuareg-led rebel group, the Islamist Ancar Dine, has also claimed to control the towns of Tinzaouaten, Tessalit, and Aguelhok, which according to most other sources are actually held by the MNLA. Though the two rebel groups have a share a history of being formed by leaders of former Tuareg rebellions, some local experts doubt that they are actually working together. Meanwhile, the coup in Mali's capital city of Bamako has resulted in the country's suspension from the African Union (AU), an important regional organization which includes every country in Africa except for Morocco. Mali is one of only two currently suspended AU states, the other being Magascar, which also experienced a coup d'etat several years ago.

(Note: For updates to the Mali conflict map, follow the Mali label on Political Geography Now.)

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Syrian Uprising: Map Update 2

There are newer versions of this map available. To see them, view all Syria updates.

Country Name: Syria (English), Sūriyya/Sūryā (Arabic)
Official Name: Syrian Arab Republic (English),
al-Jumhūriyyah al-‘Arabīyah as-Sūriyyah (Arabic)
News Category: Divided Countries
Full Story: See Syria Divided by Armed Conflict

Map of Syria, showing control by the rebel Free Syrian Army as of March 20, 2012
Known areas of armed activity for the rebel "Free Syrian Army" - many rural areas may be under full rebel
control. Unarmed protests not shown. Revised for control of Qalaat al-Madiq and Azaz (see article). Map
is my own work, starting from this blank map by German Wikipedia user NordNordWest. License: CC BY-SA
(Note: For further updates to this map, follow the Syria label on Political Geography Now.)

Syria Conflict Update
The last few weeks have seen territorial losses for the Free Syrian Army (FSA), as government forces have executed a series major offensives on rebel-held areas. By the end of February, Qusayr near Homs was already reportedly only under partial control of the FSA, and on March 1 the Syrian army overran the rebel stronghold district of Baba Amr in the city of Homs itself. While fighting continues in a few other districts, the capture of Baba Amr was widely seen as crucial defeat for the FSA in Homs.

Less than two weeks later, government forces successfully took the northern city of Idlib from the rebels after a three-day battle. Daraa in the south and Deir ez-Zor in the east have also seen government offensives, while shelling continues in Rastan and rebel-held areas of Hama, though territorial control of these areas has mostly not changed. Meanwhile, since our last update, significant FSA activity has been reported for apparently the first time in the areas around Aleppo and Al-Qamishli, both cities that have been relatively quiet up until now.

This map also contains a correction from the last report - the town of Zabadani near Damascus was held by the rebels through late January and early February, but was taken back by the Syrian army prior to the last map update on February 26. That map has now been updated as well. Finally, the meaning of red coloration for cities on the map has been adjusted to include cities mostly under rebel control, since it is often difficult to determine whether control is 100% complete. You can see Political Geography Now's original report and background information on the Syrian uprising in the article entitled Syria Divided by Armed Conflict.

Revision (April 10, 2012)
Since this map was first posted, it has since been reported that Azaz and Qalaat al-Madiq were already under rebel control on March 20. The map has been revised to show this.

Useful Link: Wikipedia - Timeline of the 2011-2012 Syrian Uprising

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Kosovo Diplomatic Recognition Continues

Country Name: Kosovo (English, Serbian), Kosova (Albanian)
Official Name: Republic of Kosovo (English), Republika e Kosovës (Albanian),
Republika Kosovo (Serbian)
News Categories: Recognition, Partially Recognized States, Breakaway States
Summary: The Republic of Kosovo has continued to receive diplomatic recognition from other countries, despite widespread opposition to its 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia. Thirteen more U.N. members have declared their recognition of independent Kosovo just within the last year.

Flag of the Republic of Kosovo
Flag of the Republic of Kosovo.
Image by Cradel (source). License: CC BY-SA
Full Story
The majority of recently independent countries, such as South Sudan and Montenegro, enjoy unopposed recognition from the U.N. and its members. However, acceptance into the international community doesn't always come so easily. Kosovo is one example: because it declared its independence without first coming to an agreement with its former host country (unlike South Sudan and Montenegro), it has struggled to gain acceptance as a sovereign state. The last of the Balkan countries to declare independence after the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, Kosovo was first separated unofficially from the country in 1999, when NATO intervened militarily in the province to stop Serbian government violence against ethnic Albanians. The Albanians are a cultural group from southeastern Europe who speak a unique language only distantly related to other European tongues, and like the Bosniaks in nearby Bosnia & Herzegovia, are one of the few majority-Muslim European peoples. They also form a majority of the population in the neighboring country of Albania.

Map of Kosovo within Serbia
Kosovo, claimed as a province of Serbia, is
policed by U.N. and E.U. peacekeepers. The
Republic of Kosovo also governs the region,
except for the Serbian-loyalist north. Map is
my own work, based on these two blank
maps by Nord-NordWest. License: CC BY-SA
Policed by a U.N. peacekeeping mission since 1999, most of Kosovo has never since been controlled by the Yugoslav (now Serbian) government, though the U.N. still officially considers it to be a province of Serbia. Despite fierce political opposition from Serbia, Russia, and other countries, as well as from the ethnic Serb minority within Kosovo, the local government declared independence in 2008. The self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo government has since administered the territory alongside the U.N. and another police force sent by the European Union, though the Northern Kosovo area, a Serb-majority region, has resisted independence and continues to support the Serbian government in Belgrade, even setting up roadblocks to keep out the Kosovan police - a sort of breakaway state within a breakaway state.

The Republic of Kosovo has not been admitted into the U.N., and it is recognized by only 88 U.N. member countries (many of them NATO members or countries with Muslim populations) and one other state (Taiwan). Serbia and Russia still strongly oppose independence for Kosovo, but the list of states recognizing its sovereignty has nevertheless continued to grow. Within the last year, 13 more U.N. members have offered diplomatic recognition of Kosovan independence: Andorra, the Central African Republic, Guinea, Niger, Benin, Saint Lucia, Nigeria, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Kuwait, Uganda, Ghana, and Haiti.

Map of countries recognizing the Republic of Kosovo
Diplomatic recognition of the Republic of Kosovo. Countries that recognized Kosovan independence recently (in the last twelve months) in light green, others in dark green; Kosovo in magenta. Public domain (source).
Sources: See citations on Wikipedia's list of Entities that recognize Kosovo as an independent state.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Map Update: Yemen Conflict

Country Name: Yemen (English), Al Yaman (Arabic)
Official Name: Republic of Yemen (English), Al Jumhūriyyah al Yamaniyyah (Arabic)
News Category: Divided Countries
Summary: Despite a negotiated end to its political crisis, Yemen is still deeply divided between the official government and at least three separate armed groups which existed even before the recent turmoil. For a description of the beginnings of Yemen's popular uprising and the first version of this conflict map from last July, see Yemen Fragments Under Uprising. A previous updated version of that map can be seen in the News Bits: October 2011 article.

Major areas of non-government control in Yemen, held by armed groups resistant to the country's recent power-sharing deal. Ansar al-Sharia and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) are two related Islamic extremist groups. Map is my own work, from this blank map by Wikipedia user NordNordWest (license: CC BY-SA)


(Note: For updates to this map, follow the Yemen label on Political Geography Now.)

Conflict Update
Since last fall, the conflict in Yemen has undergone something of a change in direction. In November President Ali Abdullah Saleh finally signed an agreement with the Joint Meeting Parties, a coalition of opposition politicians that includes Nobel Peace Prize winner Tawakkul Karman. Under the deal, brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council, Saleh would yield the presidency in February to vice president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi via a symbolic election. After the power transfer went forward as planned last month, opposition militias have mostly ended their conflicts with the government, and unarmed protests have decreased (but not ended altogether). The city of Taiz, referred to as the heart of Yemen's revolution, has been largely demilitarized, and the streets of Sana'a no longer see frequent violence.

Useful Link: Timeline of the 2011–2012 Yemeni uprising (Wikipedia)

However, not all groups have fully agreed to the terms of the new arrangement. Most notably, there are three major armed groups who have been resisting the Yemeni government since long before last year's popular uprising began:

Ansar al-Sharia & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP): These two apparently connected groups of Islamic extremists took advantage of the chaos of the revolution to carve out their own territories in southern Yemen. Ansar al-Sharia now controls much of Abyan and Shabwah provinces, including hotly contested Zinjibar, as well as its recently declared "Islamic emirates" in both Jaar (which they renamed Waqar) and the eastern Shabwah region. Al Qaeda affiliate AQAP operates widely in the country, and in January briefly captured the town of Rada'a before withdrawing after negotiations with local leaders. Ansar al-Sharia and AQAP have played no part in the peace process, and are sworn enemies of nearly all other major political groups in the country.

The Al Houthi Rebels: The Houthis are a Shiite insurgent group that has fought several wars for autonomy from predominantly Sunni Yemen since 2004. During the beginnings of last year's uprising, the Houthis solidified control over their home region of Sa'dah in the far northwest of the country, and have recently extended their power to the three surrounding provinces as well. The group's leadership has called for participation in the national reconciliation process, but boycotted voting in last month's single-party election. Only time can tell whether the Houthis' territories will be integrated into Yemen or again erupt into full-blown rebellion.

The Southern Separatists: Ever since North and South Yemen united in 1990, southerners wishing to re-secede have become a major political force in the country. Many of the separatists use peaceful political methods, but there are also insurgents who occasionally make attacks on the government in the name of southern independence. These separatist militants played only a small part in the uprising last year, but have recently become more active, denouncing last month's election and even going so far as to attack polling stations. Though they do not solidly control any territory, they still form a major threat to unity in Yemen.

Further Reading: Land of the Black Flag - Journalist Casey Coombs visits and photographs the Ansar al-Sharia stronghold of Jaar, the so-called "Islamic Emirate of Waqar".

Major Sources:
Yemen Post News
AEI Critical Threats